The end of 2016 means an updated prospects list. There’s not a whole lot of movement up top, but some pretty significant movement once you reach the thirties. A few players made large jumps, highlighted by Tre Carter, while some notable prospects drop considerably: Javier Guerra, Jerry Keel. There are seven new prospects on the list: Josh Naylor and six others who were previously unrated.

Before I begin, let me remind the reader how I rank players, quoting from the original post:

Everything comes back to World Series odds. A player with some probability of being a high impact player will be ranked above players with a high probability of making the Major Leagues as a replacement-level player. That’s why several relatively unheralded DSL players rank above Auston Bousfield, for example.

And one final note: if we were ranking Padres assets, I would rank their 2017 first round pick as their number two prospect.

Without further ado…

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Manny Margot	CF	1	1	MLB	09-28-1994	22.0
Anderson Espinoza	SP	2	2	A	03-09-1998	18.6
Austin Hedges	C	3	3	MLB	08-18-1992	24.2
Cal Quantrill	SP	4	6	A	02-10-1995	21.7
Hunter Renfroe	RF	5	4	MLB	01-28-1992	24.7
Chris Paddack	SP	6	5	A	01-08-1996	20.8
Adrian Morejon	SP	7	7	TBD	02-27-1999	17.6
Luis Urias	2B	8	10	A+	06-03-1997	19.4
Logan Allen	SP	9	8	A	05-23-1997	19.4
Eric Lauer	SP	10	11	A	06-03-1995	21.4

The top two shouldn’t surprise anyone: Margot is a rare prospect and Espinoza compares with a young Felix Hernandez. Hedges retains his status as number three prospect as he continued his offensive breakout through the end of the season.

I bumped Quantrill up the rankings based on his strong strikeout, walk, and homeruns allowed rates. (The true outcome data is most important for predicting future pitcher success.) I think his early results indicate that it’s possible he becomes an impact arm by 2019 or, in rare circumstances, 2018.

That meant that both Renfroe and Paddack fell. Despite the early success at the plate for Renfroe, what will ultimately determine his usefulness are his glove and ability to draw walks. His comps aren’t great, but I’m willing to overlook that for the power upside. Paddack fell for an obvious reason: he had Tommy John surgery.

I won’t blame you if you have Urias in your top five, but I want to see him face better minor league pitching before putting him ahead of scout favorites or guys closer to the MLB level. I won’t be surprised if, after Margot loses his prospect eligibility, and with another year of solid production at AA, Urias becomes the number one prospect. His contact numbers are insane, he’s very young, and his defensive metrics (by Clay Davenport) grade really well.

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Dinelson Lamet	SP	11	16	AAA	07-18-1992	24.2
Jorge Ona	LF	12	14	TBD	12-31-1996	19.8
Michael Gettys	CF	13	9	A+	10-22-1995	21.0
Franchy Cordero	CF	14	12	AA	09-02-1994	22.1
Luis Almanzar	SS	15	15	TBD	11-01-1999	17.0
Mason Thompson	SP	16	20	Rk	02-20-1998	18.7
Gabriel Arias	SS	17	18	TBD	02-27-2000	16.6
Josh Naylor	1B	18	N/A	A+	06-22-1997	19.3
Hudson Sanchez	SS	19	19	A-	10-28-1998	18.0
Tre Carter	OF	20	32	Rk	03-22-1997	19.6

I’ll be shocked if Lamet isn’t in the 2017 rotation. He received promotions in 2016 that culminated with a stint in El Paso to end the year. He looked good at every stop, putting up 158 strikeouts in 150 innings, while allowing just 8 homeruns and keeping his strikeout to walk ratio above 2.5.

Gettys dropped due to a pretty meh end to 2016 that saw his overall line on the year regress. He struck out 68 times in July and August over 234 plate appearances. He also stopped stealing bases effectively in Lake Elsinore, going just 9 for 15 in 60 games after going 24 for 34 over 68 games in Fort Wayne. I don’t think these are majors concerns and he still has monster upside, but it does give me some pause.

Mason Thompson had a nice debut in Rookie ball, getting in a dozen effective innings. It seems weird to focus on small samples, but pitchers who end up having huge impacts at the Major League level tend to dominate almost every small sample in the minors. That Thompson had a good debut doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does mean he avoided the early shit list. His stuff also just looks completely filthy.

I’m not a huge Naylor fan, mostly because he’s not currently dominating the minor leagues and he plays first base. He does have a little Prince Fielder in him, though, and his strikeout rates show he’s not being overpowered. He’s also still really young and fairly advanced in a few ways players his age generally aren’t, so I consider him fairly interchangeable with Hudson Sanchez.

Tre Carter had the most meaningful jump of any prospect. He was drafted and signed as a high upside project, but quickly eliminated the project narrative. In limited time, he put up an OBP above .400 on a 9/10 BB/K split, two triples, and a dozen singles. For someone described as “the ultimate tools/upside selection“, it was a great debut.

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Jacob Nix	SP	21	22	A	01-09-1996	20.8
Javier Guerra	SS	22	13	A+	09-25-1995	21.1
Ruddy Giron	SS	23	25	A+	01-04-1997	19.8
Fernando Tatis Jr.	3B	24	21	A-	01-02-1999	17.8
Jeisson Rosario	RF	25	26	TBD	10-10-1999	17.0
Reggie Lawson	SP	26	29	Rk	08-02-1997	19.2
Tirso Ornelas	OF	27	30	TBD	03-11-2000	16.6
Buddy Reed	CF	28	23	A-	04-27-1995	21.5
Carlos Asuaje	3B	29	24	MLB	11-02-1991	25.0
Eguy Rosario	SS	30	35	Rk	08-25-1999	17.1

Guerra drops considerably, and I’ll think you’ll see that from every major prospect outlet. The strikeouts were up, power was down. I’ve read that he looks “lost” offensively. 22 may still be friendly, but a shortstop with power upside will keep you towards the top of almost any prospect list.

Reed didn’t show much offensively, but it’s too early to definitively draw any conclusions on him. That said, he’s closer to bust than he was when he was drafted, so he gets knocked down a little.

Rosario got promoted from the DSL to the AZL late in the year, and performed fine. Consistently the most productive position player for the Padres’ DSL squad, he’s a player who could really rise up these charts with a big 2017.

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Henry Henry	SP	31	38	Rk	12-17-1998	17.8
Ty France	3B	32	46	A+	07-13-1994	22.3
Joey Lucchesi	SP	33	47	A	06-06-1993	23.4
Michael Kelly	SP	34	27	AAA	09-06-1992	24.1
Franmil Reyes	RF	35	42	A+	07-07-1995	21.3
Jose Rondon	SS	36	17	AAA	03-03-1994	22.6
Austin Allen	C	37	50	AA	01-16-1994	22.7
Carlos Belen	3B	38	49	A	02-28-1996	20.6
Justin Lopez	SS	39	39	TBD	05-09-2000	16.4
Jack Suwinski	RF	40	58	Rk	07-29-1998	18.2

Ty France had a really nice year, earning a promotion to Lake Elsinore where his strikeout rate stayed unchanged (below 20%) but his ISO went up. Between Fort Wayne and Elsinore, he put up a combined slash line of .271/.387/.420 with 38 extra base hits. The walks did dip after the promotion but the overall line is too good to ignore.

Lucchesi dominated more than any recent draft pick I can remember. After leading the entire NCAA in strikeouts, and as an older prospect, it was sorta expected. But seriously: he struck out 56 in 42 innings while allowing just 3 walks and no homeruns. It’ll be interesting to see if he has success against more advanced hitters; if he continues to dominate through AA, it would push him up to borderline top ten status.

Jose Rondon fell due to a poor second half. His 3 for 25 at the MLB level wasn’t as bad as 3 for 25 sounds, but he did end the year with a .309 OBP that was BABIP inflated. In July and August, his OBP was a lowly .293.

Suwinski debuted in the AZL and showed good plate discipline. Strikeouts were under 20%, walks above 10%. We didn’t see much power, but I expect that’ll develop. That he didn’t put up a turd in his first 100 plate appearances solidifies him on the prospect map. I bumped him up for that reason alone.

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Walker Lockett	RP	41	59	AAA	05-03-1994	22.4
Jordy Barley	SS	42	51	TBD	12-03-1999	16.9
Dan Dallas	SP	43	60	Rk	12-24-1997	18.8
Kelvin Melean	SS	44	74	DSL	09-05-1998	18.1
Jean Cosme	SP	45	43	A	05-24-1996	20.4
Jose Lezama	C	46	56	Rk	02-19-1998	18.7
Jerry Keel	SP	47	28	AA	09-26-1993	23.1
Phil Maton	RP	48	70	AAA	03-25-1993	23.6
Enyel De Los Santos	SP	49	31	A+	12-25-1995	20.8
Josh VanMeter	3B	50	34	AA	03-10-1995	21.6

Lockett had a really successful 2016. I’ve bumped him up a lot, but I’m not bullish on his odds of being a true impact arm. Again, these rankings are predicated on the Padres winning the World Series. Guys with third starter upside aren’t going to be treated favorably by those standards. However, he has really good control and has had success up through AAA now. I think he’ll be a contender for a rotation spot in 2017, with a high probability of making starts even if he doesn’t win a job out of spring.

Melean ranked 74th last time because of his high signing bonus in Preller’s first international class but low performance in his first 50 ABs or so. He ended the year hitting .291 with an OBP over .400. It may have been helped by guys graduating from the DSL, leaving him with easier arms to hit, but it’s still a good sign.

Keel drops as much as anyone after some poor performances post promotion(s), allowing 7 homeruns in less than 40 innings in Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. His game is keeping the ball on the ground, which is tough in warm weather places like Elsinore and San Antonio, so I’m not too concerned, but it was a pretty disastrous result for him. Since there’s a chance it just means he’s hittable, I have to knock him down considerably.

Phil Maton keeps moving up the org and keeps dominating. I’ve said multiple times that last year’s San Antonio bullpen is the future Padres bullpen, and Maton highlights this group. He struck out 78 in 51 innings last year, with just 11 walks. He could make the 2017 roster.

Player	Pos	Rank	Previous	Level	DOB	Age
Andres Munoz	SP	51	36	Rk	01-16-1999	17.7
Hansel Rodriguez	SP	52	37	A-	02-27-1997	19.6
Yimmi Brasoban	RP	53	41	AA	06-22-1994	22.3
Jose Castillo	RP	54	44	A+	01-10-1996	20.8
Lake Bachar	SP	55	45	A	06-03-1995	21.4
Austin Smith	SP	56	40	A	07-09-1996	20.3
Alison Quintero	C	57	53	TBD	04-24-2000	16.5
Jose Cabrera	SP	58	55	DSL	09-26-1998	18.1
Brett Kennedy	SP	59	48	A+	08-04-1994	22.2
Trey Wingenter	RP	60	NR	A+	04-15-1994	22.5
Rafael De Paula	RP	61	62	AA	03-24-1991	25.6
Jose Torres	RP	62	63	AAA	09-24-1993	23.1
Dayon Olmo	CF	63	NR	Rk	11-15-1996	19.9
Jose Ruiz	RP	64	NR	A+	10-21-1994	22.0
Brad Wieck	RP	65	71	AA	10-14-1991	25.0
Brad Zunica	1B	66	47	A	10-21-1995	21.0
Jason Jester	RP	67	61	AAA	05-04-1991	25.4
Starlin Cordero	SP	68	NR	Rk	07-21-1998	18.2
Auston Bousfield	CF	69	67	AAA	07-05-1993	23.3
Nick Torres	LF	70	NR	AAA	06-30-1993	23.3
Jose Carlos Urena	RF	71	64	A	01-14-1995	21.8
A.J. Brown	CF	72	54	TBD	06-30-1997	19.3
Chris Baker	SS	73	NR	A	11-29-1994	21.9
Reinaldo Ilarraza	2B	74	52	Rk	01-12-1999	17.8
Mayky Perez	SP	75	57	A-	09-26-1996	20.1

Some reconfiguring of the back end of the top 75 and a lot of new names.

Trey Wingenter was a 2015 pick, but he continues to put up great true outcome numbers. He just passed the 80 professional innings mark and still hasn’t allowed a homerun. At 6’7″, he’s another Padre farmhand with a chance to be a late-inning reliever at the MLB level.

Dayan Olmo almost (ha!) made the list last time, but had a nice end of the season to push himself into the top 75. He’s a bit old for an international prospect, but it seems to be coming together for him. He played both centerfield and corner outfield, but his calling card will be his bat.

Jose Ruiz was one of the lone $1 million international signings under Tom Garfinkel’s quantity over quality approach. He was a catcher until the middle of last year when he was converted to relief pitcher. He dominated. There is a long history of minor league catchers converting to relief pitcher, including current Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. I think Ruiz becomes a legit late inning prospect with this position change.

Jose Carlos Urena would be rated much higher if he wasn’t suspended in 2016 for PEDs. I think he could jump back up the rankings with a strong 2017.

Chris Baker was a 2016 draft pick that had a nice debut. His defensive metrics, as estimated by Clay Davenport, were pretty absurd. He also showed a little bit at the plate. He’ll be 22 by opening day, so he’ll have to show more quickly, but he’s worth considering as a possible future Padre.

Reinaldo Ilarraza dropped a bunch after his promotion from the DSL to the AZL. He struck out over half the time in the AZL.